Follow our social media channels and Digital Garrison App as we continue with around the clock updates to keep you informed and safe.
TC Debby Updates
Tropical Storm Debby continues its path towards Fort Stewart and Hunter Army Airfield, and we have reached our forecasted timeframe of maximum gusts of up to 34 mph, with higher gusts.
A turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north at a slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across southeastern Georgia tonight, and then off the Georgia coast Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the South Carolina coast on Thursday. Some slight weakening is forecast tonight or early Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday when Debby is off the southeastern U.S. coast. Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 30 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of eastern Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through Wednesday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. If you live on Fort Stewart or Hunter Army Airfield and are experiencing flooding in your home, call the DES non-emergency line at 571-802-1800 for assistance. If you are displaced due to flooding in your home, please call the Hunter Family Homes Work Order Line at 912-459-2147 or the Stewart Family Homes Work Order Line at 912-408-2466 for next steps. Stay tuned right here on our official social media channels and on the Digital Garrison App as we continue with around the clock updates to keep you informed and safe.
Hurricane Debby made landfall in Florida early this morning and is expected to push toward Fort Stewart-Hunter Army Airfield around 3 p.m. Current maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as Debby moves inland.
With local impacts are expected to increase this afternoon and into Tuesday, there is a significant amount of rainfall in the forecast meaning many of our low-lying areas could experience flooding through the middle and later parts of the week.
Make preparations now by securing outside items in your yard such as play equipment, patio furniture/decor and trash cans.
- FSGA OPEN 24/7: Wooldridge (1), Marshall (4), Miymura (5)
- FSGA CLOSED: Britt (3), McGarr (7), Commercial (7C), Barkley (8)
- HAAF OPEN 24/7: Montgomery, Wilson ..- HAAF CLOSED: Rio
Stay tuned right here on our official social media channels and on the Digital Garrison App as we continue with around the clock updates to keep you informed and safe.
All key and essential personnel are required to report to work on Monday and Tuesday. Please check in with your chain of command for further instructions.
Tuttle Army Health Clinic: Pharmacy open until noon Monday, all other services closed. Winn ACH MTF staff should check with their supervisors for reporting instructions and prepare for ADPAAS and FEDPASS status reporting. On-call staff report as usual. Telework will be maximized.
NOAA Map
HURRICANE
HURRICANE FORECASTS
CSU researchers predicting well above-average 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
May 15, 2024
Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of an extremely warm Atlantic and a likely developing La Niña, the forecast team has higher-than-normal confidence for an April outlook that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active. This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that CSU has ever issued with their April outlook. The prior highest April forecast was for nine hurricanes, which has been called for several times since the university began issuing April forecasts in 1995. However, the team stresses that the April outlook historically has the lowest level of skill of CSU’s operational seasonal hurricane forecasts, given the considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere-ocean between April and the peak of
the Atlantic hurricane season from August–October.
ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY
| Forecast Parameter and 1991–2020 | Average | 2024 Forecast |
| Named Storms (NS) | 14.4 | 17-24 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 69.4 | 115 |
| Hurricanes (H) | 72 | 8-13 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 27..0 | 45 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) | 3.2 | 4-7 |
| Major Hurricane Days (MHD) | 7.4 | 13 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) | 123 | 210 |
| ACE West of 60°W | 73 | 125 |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 135% | 220% |
The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team is predicting 23 named storms during the Atlantic
hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, researchers forecast eleven to
become hurricanes and five to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson Category 3-4-5)
with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The team bases its forecasts on a statistical model, as well as four models that use a
combination of statistical information and model predictions of large-scale conditions from the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office, the Japan
Meteorological Agency, and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici. These
models use 25-40 years of historical hurricane seasons and evaluate conditions including:
Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in
wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the
central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.
So far, the 2024 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010
and 2020.
“Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, senior
research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the
report. “This highlights the somewhat lower levels of uncertainty that exist with this outlook
relative to our typical early April outlook.”
The team predicts that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170% of the average season from
1991–2020. By comparison, 2023’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season.
The most significant hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was Hurricane Idalia. Idalia
made landfall at Category 3 intensity in the Big Bend region of Florida, causing $3.6 billion
dollars in damage and resulting in eight direct fatalities.
In addition to the various hurricane metrics that CSU has used for many years, the forecast
team introduced a new metric last year. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) occurring west of
60 degrees west longitude is an integrated metric accounting for storm frequency, intensity and
duration in the western half of the Atlantic basin. ACE generated west of 60 degrees west
correlates better with landfalling storms in the Atlantic basin than basinwide ACE, since virtually
all hurricane-prone landmasses in the Atlantic Ocean are located west of 60 degrees west.
Generally, a slightly lower percentage of basinwide ACE occurs west of 60 degrees west in El
Niño years relative to La Niña years. Since the team anticipates La Niña as the most likely
outcome in 2024, the percentage of basinwide ACE occurring west of 60 degrees west is
predicted to be higher than last year.
The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.
This is the 41st year that CSU has issued an Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast. Professor
Emeritus Bill Gray originated the seasonal forecasts at CSU and launched the report in 1984. He
continued to author them until his death in 2016. The authors of this year’s forecast are Phil
Klotzbach, Professor Michael Bell, Ph.D. candidate Alex DesRosiers, and Research Scientist Levi
Silvers. The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate Team is part of the Department of Atmospheric
Science in the Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering at CSU and is one of the top ranked
Atmospheric Science programs in the world.
The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the
upcoming season – not an exact measure.
As always, the researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” Bell said.
Hurricane landfalling probability included in 2024 report
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
-
62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
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34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is21%).
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42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
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66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).
hurricanes tracking within 50 miles of each county or parish along the Gulf and U.S. East Coast,
as well as hurricane-prone coastal states, Mexican states, Canadian provinces and countries in
Central America and the Caribbean. These probabilities for regions and countries are adjusted
based on the current seasonal forecast.
Tropical Weather Track
National Hurricane Center - Miami, FL.
Tornadoes
Tornado Watch /Tornado Warning issued by the National Weather Service (NWS)
Be Weather-Ready:
Check the forecast regularly to see if you're at risk for tornadoes. Listen to local news or a NOAA Weather Radio to stay informed about tornado watches and warnings.
Create a Communications Plan:
Have a family plan that includes an emergency meeting place and related 'what to do if...' information. If you live in a mobile home or home without a basement, identify a nearby safe building you can get too quickly, such as a concrete or brick structure.
Pick a safe room in your home:
A safe room can be a basement, storm cellar, or an interior room on the lowest floor with no windows. Make your family plan at: https://www.ready.gov/make-a-plan
Practice Your Plan:
Conduct a family severe weather drill regularly, so everyone knows what to do if a tornado is approaching. Make sure all members of your family know where to go, when tornado warnings are issued. Don't forget your pets.
Prepare Your Home:
Consider having your safe room reinforced. You can find plans for reinforcing an interior space on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) website
https://www.ready.gov/shelter
Lightning
Lightning Safety
Lightning Threat
Minimizing Lightning Risk
Lightning Strike Victims
Flooding
Fort Stewart and Hunter Army Airfield
Flash Flood Watch
A Flash Flood Watch is issued to indicate current or developing conditions that are favorable for flash flooding. The occurrence is neither certain nor imminent. A watch is typically issued within several hours to days ahead of the onset of possible flash flooding.
Flood Watch
A Flood Watch is issued to indicate current or developing conditions that are favorable for flooding. The occurrence is neither certain nor imminent. A watch is typically issued within several hours to days ahead of the onset of possible flooding. In situations where a river or stream is expected to be the main source of the flooding, forecast confidence may allow for a Flood Watch to be issued several days in advance.
Flash Flood Warning
A Flash Flood Warning is issued to inform the public, emergency management and other cooperating agencies that flash flooding is in progress, imminent, or highly likely. Flash Flood Warnings are urgent messages as dangerous flooding can develop very rapidly with a serious threat to life and/or property. Flash Flood Warnings are usually issued minutes to hours in advance of the onset of flooding.
Flood Warning
A Flood Warning is issued to inform the public of flooding that poses a serious threat to life and/or property. A Flood Warning may be issued hours to days in advance of the onset of flooding based on foretasted conditions. Floods occurring along a river usually contain river stage (level) forecasts.
Flood Advisory
A Flood Advisory is issued when a flood event warrants notification but is less urgent than a warning. Advisories are issued for conditions that could cause a significant inconvenience, and if caution is not exercised could lead to situations that may threaten life and/or property.
Coastal/Lake shore Hazard Message
Coastal/Lake shore Hazard Message provide the public with detailed information on significant coastal/lake shore events. Coastal/Lake shore events impact land-based and near shore interests along much of the United States coastline. This product can be issued as a watch, warning or advisory and follows the same "Be Aware, Be Prepared, Take Action" definitions as with other National Weather Service (NWS) Watches, Warnings and Advisories (WWA). A Watch is issued when flooding with significant impacts is possible. Warnings are issued when flooding posing a serious threat to life and property is occurring, imminent or highly likely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statements provide the public with information concerning ongoing or imminent weather hazards, which require a heightened level of awareness or action, but do not rise to the level of watch, warning or advisory.
–Hydrologic Outlook
Two types:
1. Short-term (1 to 7 days) Hydrologic Outlooks can be issued to alert thepublic of the potential for flooding in the near-term such as when heavyrainfall is forecast that could result in flooding or aggravate an existingflood if it occurs.
2. Long-term (weeks to months) Hydrologic Outlooks may also provide river orreservoir level and/or flow information. This information could be used forwater supply concerns or projection of snowmelt flooding.
–Hazardous Weather Outlook
TheHazardous Weather Outlook is a single source of information regarding expectedhazardous weather through seven days. It can include information on severestorms, heavy rain, flooding, tropical storms, winter weather, high winds, fireweather and marine hazards.
After The Storm
- · Continue listening to your local radio station for news and the latest updates.
- · If you evacuated, return home only when officials say it is safe.
- · Once home, drive only if necessary and avoid flooded roads and washed-out bridges. If you must go out, watch for fallen objects in the road, downed electrical wires, and weakened walls, bridges, roads, and sidewalks that might collapse.
- · Walk carefully around the outside of your home to check for loose power lines, gas leaks, and structural damage.
- · Stay out of any building if you smell gas, if floodwaters remain around the building, if the building or home was damaged by fire, or if the authorities have not declared it safe.
- · Carbon monoxide poisoning is one of the leading causes of death after storms in areas dealing with power outages. Never use a portable generator inside your home or garage. Review generator safety.
- · Use battery-powered flashlights. Do NOT use candles. Turn on your flashlight before entering a vacated building. The battery could produce a spark that could ignite leaking gas, if present.
Information Source
