NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season
May 25, 2023
NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY
Forecast for 2023 Hurricane Activity
+A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) for each 6-hour period of its existence.
Forecast Parameter and 1991–2020 Average (in parentheses)
Issue Date 13 April 2023
Named Storms (NS) (14.4) 13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (69.4) 55
Hurricanes (H) (7.2) 6
Hurricane Days (HD) (27.0) 25
Major Hurricanes (MH) (3.2) 2
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (7.4) 5
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (123) 100
We are using a new methodology for calculating the impacts of tropical cyclones for each state and county/parish along the Gulf and East Coasts, tropical cyclone-prone provinces of Canada, Atlantic-facing states of coastal Mexico, islands in the Caribbean and countries in Central America. We have used NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website and selected all named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of each landmass from 1880-2020. This approach allows for tropical cyclones that may have tracked through an immediately adjacent region to be counted for all regions that were in close proximity to the location of the storm. We then fit the observed frequency of storms within 50 miles of each landmass using a Poisson distribution to calculate the climatological odds of one or more events within 50 miles. Net landfall probability is shown to be linked to the overall Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) for each 6-hour period of its existence. Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall. Use the drop-down to obtain the climatological odds of storms tracking within 50 miles of each state along the Gulf and East Coasts along with the odds for the current season based on the latest forecast. All of the calculations are also available in a downloadable spreadsheet.
Tropical Weather Track
National Hurricane Center - Miami, FL.
Tornado Watch /Tornado Warning issued by the National Weather Service (NWS)
Check the forecast regularly to see if you're at risk for tornadoes. Listen to local news or a NOAA Weather Radio to stay informed about tornado watches and warnings.
Create a Communications Plan:
Have a family plan that includes an emergency meeting place and related 'what to do if...' information. If you live in a mobile home or home without a basement, identify a nearby safe building you can get too quickly, such as a concrete or brick structure.
Pick a safe room in your home:
A safe room can be a basement, storm cellar, or an interior room on the lowest floor with no windows. Make your family plan at: https://www.ready.gov/make-a-plan
Practice Your Plan:
Conduct a family severe weather drill regularly, so everyone knows what to do if a tornado is approaching. Make sure all members of your family know where to go, when tornado warnings are issued. Don't forget your pets.
Prepare Your Home:
Consider having your safe room reinforced. You can find plans for reinforcing an interior space on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) website
Minimizing Lightning Risk
Lightning Strike Victims
Fort Stewart and Hunter Army Airfield
Flash Flood Watch
A Flash Flood Watch is issued to indicate current or developing conditions that are favorable for flash flooding. The occurrence is neither certain nor imminent. A watch is typically issued within several hours to days ahead of the onset of possible flash flooding.
A Flood Watch is issued to indicate current or developing conditions that are favorable for flooding. The occurrence is neither certain nor imminent. A watch is typically issued within several hours to days ahead of the onset of possible flooding. In situations where a river or stream is expected to be the main source of the flooding, forecast confidence may allow for a Flood Watch to be issued several days in advance.
Flash Flood Warning
A Flash Flood Warning is issued to inform the public, emergency management and other cooperating agencies that flash flooding is in progress, imminent, or highly likely. Flash Flood Warnings are urgent messages as dangerous flooding can develop very rapidly with a serious threat to life and/or property. Flash Flood Warnings are usually issued minutes to hours in advance of the onset of flooding.
A Flood Warning is issued to inform the public of flooding that poses a serious threat to life and/or property. A Flood Warning may be issued hours to days in advance of the onset of flooding based on foretasted conditions. Floods occurring along a river usually contain river stage (level) forecasts.
A Flood Advisory is issued when a flood event warrants notification but is less urgent than a warning. Advisories are issued for conditions that could cause a significant inconvenience, and if caution is not exercised could lead to situations that may threaten life and/or property.
Coastal/Lake shore Hazard Message
Coastal/Lake shore Hazard Message provide the public with detailed information on significant coastal/lake shore events. Coastal/Lake shore events impact land-based and near shore interests along much of the United States coastline. This product can be issued as a watch, warning or advisory and follows the same "Be Aware, Be Prepared, Take Action" definitions as with other National Weather Service (NWS) Watches, Warnings and Advisories (WWA). A Watch is issued when flooding with significant impacts is possible. Warnings are issued when flooding posing a serious threat to life and property is occurring, imminent or highly likely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statements provide the public with information concerning ongoing or imminent weather hazards, which require a heightened level of awareness or action, but do not rise to the level of watch, warning or advisory.
1. Short-term (1 to 7 days) Hydrologic Outlooks can be issued to alert thepublic of the potential for flooding in the near-term such as when heavyrainfall is forecast that could result in flooding or aggravate an existingflood if it occurs.
2. Long-term (weeks to months) Hydrologic Outlooks may also provide river orreservoir level and/or flow information. This information could be used forwater supply concerns or projection of snowmelt flooding.
–Hazardous Weather Outlook
TheHazardous Weather Outlook is a single source of information regarding expectedhazardous weather through seven days. It can include information on severestorms, heavy rain, flooding, tropical storms, winter weather, high winds, fireweather and marine hazards.
After The Storm
- · Continue listening to your local radio station for news and the latest updates.
- · If you evacuated, return home when officials say it is safe.
- · Once home, drive only if necessary and avoid flooded roads and washed-out bridges. If you must go out, watch for fallen objects in the road, downed electrical wires, and weakened walls, bridges, roads, and sidewalks that might collapse.
- · Walk carefully around the outside of your home to check for loose power lines, gas leaks, and structural damage.
- · Stay out of any building if you smell gas, if floodwaters remain around the building, if the building or home was damaged by fire, or if the authorities have not declared it safe.
- · Carbon monoxide poisoning is one of the leading causes of death after storms in areas dealing with power outages. Never use a portable generator inside your home or garage. .
- · Use battery-powered flashlights. Do NOT use candles. Turn on your flashlight before entering a vacated building. The battery could produce a spark that could ignite leaking gas, if present.