Current El Niño climate conditions, which tend to suppress hurricane activity, are predicted to weaken to either a cool neutral El Niño or a weak La Niña during summer or fall. This would likely result in increased storm activity in the Atlantic.
In the tropical Atlantic, sea surface temperatures are slightly above normal, which tends to be associated with stronger storms.
The initial forecast from Colorado State University gives a 69% chance of a major (Category 3 or greater) hurricane making landfall along the entire coast of the continental U.S., a 45% chance along the East Coast and Florida peninsula, a 44% chance along the Gulf Coast, and a 58% chance in the Caribbean. These probabilities are roughly 15% above the averages for the last century.
CSU predicts 16 named tropical storms (average is 12.1) of which 8 will become hurricanes (average is 6.4). Of the hurricanes that are expected to occur, 4 will turn into major hurricanes (average is 2.7).
AccuWeather predicts 14 to 18 tropical storms and 7 to 9 hurricanes, of which 2 to 4 will become major hurricanes.
Tropical Weather Track
National Hurricane Center - Miami, FL.
Tornado Watch /Tornado Warning issued by the National Weather Service (NWS)
Check the forecast regularly to see if you're at risk for tornadoes. Listen to local news or a NOAA Weather Radio to stay informed about tornado watches and warnings.
Create a Communications Plan:
Have a family plan that includes an emergency meeting place and related 'what to do if...' information. If you live in a mobile home or home without a basement, identify a nearby safe building you can get too quickly, such as a concrete or brick structure.
Pick a safe room in your home:
A safe room can be a basement, storm cellar, or an interior room on the lowest floor with no windows. Make your family plan at: https://www.ready.gov/make-a-plan
Practice Your Plan:
Conduct a family severe weather drill regularly, so everyone knows what to do if a tornado is approaching. Make sure all members of your family know where to go, when tornado warnings are issued. Don't forget your pets.
Prepare Your Home:
Consider having your safe room reinforced. You can find plans for reinforcing an interior space on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) website
Minimizing Lightning Risk
Lightning Strike Victims
Fort Stewart and Hunter Army Airfield
Flash Flood Watch
A Flash Flood Watch is issued to indicate current or developing conditions that are favorable for flash flooding. The occurrence is neither certain nor imminent. A watch is typically issued within several hours to days ahead of the onset of possible flash flooding.
A Flood Watch is issued to indicate current or developing conditions that are favorable for flooding. The occurrence is neither certain nor imminent. A watch is typically issued within several hours to days ahead of the onset of possible flooding. In situations where a river or stream is expected to be the main source of the flooding, forecast confidence may allow for a Flood Watch to be issued several days in advance.
Flash Flood Warning
A Flash Flood Warning is issued to inform the public, emergency management and other cooperating agencies that flash flooding is in progress, imminent, or highly likely. Flash Flood Warnings are urgent messages as dangerous flooding can develop very rapidly with a serious threat to life and/or property. Flash Flood Warnings are usually issued minutes to hours in advance of the onset of flooding.
A Flood Warning is issued to inform the public of flooding that poses a serious threat to life and/or property. A Flood Warning may be issued hours to days in advance of the onset of flooding based on foretasted conditions. Floods occurring along a river usually contain river stage (level) forecasts.
A Flood Advisory is issued when a flood event warrants notification but is less urgent than a warning. Advisories are issued for conditions that could cause a significant inconvenience, and if caution is not exercised could lead to situations that may threaten life and/or property.
Coastal/Lake shore Hazard Message
Coastal/Lake shore Hazard Message provide the public with detailed information on significant coastal/lake shore events. Coastal/Lake shore events impact land-based and near shore interests along much of the United States coastline. This product can be issued as a watch, warning or advisory and follows the same "Be Aware, Be Prepared, Take Action" definitions as with other National Weather Service (NWS) Watches, Warnings and Advisories (WWA). A Watch is issued when flooding with significant impacts is possible. Warnings are issued when flooding posing a serious threat to life and property is occurring, imminent or highly likely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statements provide the public with information concerning ongoing or imminent weather hazards, which require a heightened level of awareness or action, but do not rise to the level of watch, warning or advisory.
1. Short-term (1 to 7 days) Hydrologic Outlooks can be issued to alert thepublic of the potential for flooding in the near-term such as when heavyrainfall is forecast that could result in flooding or aggravate an existingflood if it occurs.
2. Long-term (weeks to months) Hydrologic Outlooks may also provide river orreservoir level and/or flow information. This information could be used forwater supply concerns or projection of snowmelt flooding.
–Hazardous Weather Outlook
TheHazardous Weather Outlook is a single source of information regarding expectedhazardous weather through seven days. It can include information on severestorms, heavy rain, flooding, tropical storms, winter weather, high winds, fireweather and marine hazards.
Nation Weather Services (NWS) Charleston, SC.
The Old Farmers Almanac-https://www.almanac.com/
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- https://www.noaa.gov/weather
Colorado State University (CSU)-https://engr.source.colostate.edu/csu-researchers-predicting-active-2020-atlantic- hurricane-season/
- Georgia Depatrment of Transportattion (GDOT) Evacuation Routes
First thing's first...where can you get real-time information?
The answer? Two places.
Also stay updated with tools and resources at the following links.